Election news – live: Tories face wipeout in poll as minister condemns D-Day blunder

A report has warned the next government it will have to cut the scope of what the state provides or raise taxes to maintain levels of departmental funding – despite Labour and the Conservatives vowing not to raise taxes.

The Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) report looks at how spending as a proportion of national income has changed since the 1950s and how it will change in the next government.

It said the current Government’s spending has increased by “significantly more” than under any previous post-war Conservative government.

IFS research economist Bee Boileau said whoever wins the General Election on July 4 “will have a choice”.

“They can cut the scope of what the state provides, or accept further worsening of public services which already look under strain,” she said. “Or they can raise taxes, or borrow more, in order to top up spending and maintain real-terms levels of departmental funding.

“Neither the Conservative Party nor the Labour Party has been clear about which of these options they would take. Neither has shown any ambition to cut the scope of the state.”

She continued: “Both have ruled out increases in major taxes. Both have committed to a debt target that would prevent them from borrowing more.

“But, absent of really significant improvements in growth forecasts, one of these options must be chosen. The trade-offs here cannot be solved by denying their existence.”

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper are set to visit the East of England for a campaign visit related to crackdown on antisocial behaviour.

Scotland’s first minister John Swinney and SNP candidates will head to Paisley, Renfrewshire, as part of their ongoing bid for reelection.

Meanwhile, Scottish Tory deputy leader Meghan Gallacher will be joined by Perth and Kinross-shire candidate Luke Graham to campaign in Perthshire.

Britain is heading for the lowest general election turnout in modern history, pollsters have warned, with the main parties and their leaders leaving many voters “politically homeless”.

The warning of mass apathy follows Techne UK polling this week which suggests that even in the middle of an election campaign with just a month to polling day, 20 per cent of people have already decided not to vote.

The poll of 1,645 voting age British people by Techne for Independent Media reveals that while the “won’t vote” percentage of the population is normally high in non-election periods, it is expected to drop significantly during the short campaign (the period between the dissolution of parliament and election day).

David Maddox and Alicja Hagopian report:

The Conservatives have pledged to halt the rising costs of welfare by reforming the benefits system if they win the election.

The latest offer from the Tories would help to save some £12 billion a year by the end of the next parliament, the party has claimed, by ensuring more working age people currently claiming benefits have a job.

The number of working age people who are out of work has risen sharply since the pandemic, and is thought to be driven in part by those who have taken early retirement and those with long-term health conditions waiting for treatment on the NHS.

But the Conservative Party said the 40 per cent increase in economically inactive people from two million to 2.8 million overall since the pandemic is unsustainable.

They have promised to bring this total down, claiming the cost of providing benefits for working age people with health conditions could rise as high as £90 billion by the end of the next parliament.

Among the steps the party would take to do this are several where the early stages have been floated by the Tories in government.

This includes a £700 million investment in NHS mental health treatment, to ensure 500,000 more people can access talking therapies to help with poor mental health.

A pledge to reform the disability benefits system and target it at those most in need is also part of the offer, as is a tightening of the criteria for work capability assessments.

Previously announced plans to pass on the responsibility for issuing sick notes from GPs to specialist work and health professionals are within the Tories’ plans.

The Conservatives also promise to toughen benefit sanction rules, speed up the rollout of universal credit, and clamp down on benefit fraudsters.

Labour is promising new powers for police to quickly scrap noisy dirt and quad bikes causing havoc in neighbourhoods as part of a crackdown on antisocial behaviour.

Sir Keir Starmer’s party also wants to hike on-the-spot fines for using off-road bikes or ignoring officers’ instructions to stop, which are currently as low as £100.

Shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper said that if Labour wins the General Election, police will get the powers to take the bikes that are a “nightmare for communities” off the streets for good.

Under the plans, set out in the Mail on Sunday and Sunday Express, police will be able to dispose of off-road bikes being used antisocially within 48 hours.

Currently, bikes seized by officers have to be impounded for two weeks before disposal, with the steep costs incentivising forces to auction them off and risk handing them back to offenders.

Labour would also extend closure notices for drug dens from 48 hours to 72 hours, giving police more time to get them shut down at court.

Data-driven hotspot policing would target the most prolific antisocial offenders under the party’s proposals.

Sinn Fein are to “dust themselves down” after early indications showed the party has not had the result it had hoped for in Ireland’s local elections.

It comes after the public expenditure minister said the expectation that Sinn Fein would be in the next government has been “shattered” by early indications in the local elections.

Ireland’s main opposition party faces a tough local election battle over the weekend, after government parties Fianna Fail and Fine Gael appeared on Saturday to have polled strongly.

Cillian Sherlock reports:

Turnout could hit a record low in the general election, many experienced observers tell The Independent. Robert Hayward, the Conservative peer and elections guru, said: “I have felt that we may have a record low turnout because it is clear that a lot of voters look politically homeless.”

Luke Tryl of More in Common, the polling and campaigning organisation, said: “It certainly wouldn’t surprise me if turnout hit a low this year.”

An exclusive opinion poll for The Independent carried out by Techne found that one in five electors has already decided not to vote. Michela Morizzo, Techne’s chief executive, said: “The risk of a low turnout is very high.” One of the causes is the uninspiring choice presented by the two main parties. As Ms Morizzo put it, “there is abstentionism among those who voted Conservative and have lost confidence”, while the Labour alternative has failed to generate much enthusiasm to compensate.