Betting Opens on Joe Biden Completing Full Term of Presidency

Article By

Joe Short

Last Updated: 11 Apr 2024

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UK betting sites are refusing to push Joe Biden ahead of Donald Trump in the betting for the US presidency later this year, even though the pair are neck-and-neck in the polls.

Mr Biden has successfully clawed back a 10-point poll deficit over the past year to draw level with Mr Trump on around 46%.

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Meanwhile, the odds that once suggested Mr Biden had less than a 30% chance of winning the next election have come in to a more favourable 11/10 (47.6%).

However, with six months of the presidential campaign to run, no bookmaker is willing to make the Democrat the favourite for this election.

Joe Biden Odds

Political betting sites are yet to commit to a single price on Mr Biden but the odds range from 11/10 (47.6%) up to 5/4 (44.4%). This hits the margins of Mr Biden’s current poll ratings yet, interestingly, the bookies seem willing to price Mr Trump at shorter odds of between 9/10 (52.6%) and 10/11 (47.6%).

Mr Biden is trailing a market he really should be leading. After all, incumbent presidents always get a poll boost heading into a re-election campaign.

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For Biden to be trailing Donald Trump at this stage highlights just how difficult life is for the president right now.

Mr Biden’s approval ratings are disastrous at just 40%. An eye-watering 56% of Americans disapprove with how he is running the country. That has pretty much been the case since December 2021.

The past two years have resulted in very little poll movement. It means Mr Biden is heading into another election being cast as the ‘Not Trump’ candidate, instead of an option that people actually want to vote for.

Will Biden Beat Trump?

Being the Trump alternative is not enough. Mr Trump has amassed a large following over the past few years and he is now targeting floating voters in key swing states.

Mr Biden is lagging in six of the seven states that could decide the election. His response has been to target women and students. The Democrats have made the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe vs Wade a core part of their presidential campaign. This has also tied Mr Trump in knots.

Meanwhile, Mr Biden is seeking to cancel student loans for 30 million borrowers. This is a huge carrot for young voters who may have become disenfranchised with the Dems since they returned to office.

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The president needs strong policies to win the 2024 US presidential election because he cannot rely on personality to overcome Mr Trump. His rival captures the media spotlight like no other politician and has managed to turn four criminal trials against him into an opportunity to grow his popularity.

Mr Trump, though, is light on policy and this is where Mr Biden can make headway when they campaign. Investment will be a key part of this election as voters seek to feel the benefits of America’s recently economic upturn.

And then there is Russia, Israel, and China. The GOP aren’t happy with Mr Biden’s plans to funnel $95 billion into supporting Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. They argue that the money could be better spent at home.

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This argument ties into voter concerns that the Biden administration is too focused on international issues. Mr Trump’s “America First” campaign cuts through here.

So it is up to the president to make the case for US spending overseas. If the West is successful in reigning in Russia, overseeing peace in the Middle East, and fending off China’s growing influence then Mr Biden will have breathing space to focus on domestic issues.

However, the more chaotic the international world gets, the less of a grip the president has on America. This could come to bite Mr Biden if he isn’t careful. No wonder betting apps are willing to push him ahead of Mr Trump.

Updated by

Joe Short

Last Updated:
 
11 Apr 2024