When to bet
By 4am on Thursday morning
Where to watch
Live on Sky Sports Golf from 10am on Thursday
Steve Palmer’s Kenya Open predictions
2pts each-way 40-1 Coral, Ladbrokes
2pts each-way 40-1 Coral, Ladbrokes
1pt each-way 66-1 general
1pt each-way 55-1 Coral, Ladbrokes
0.5pt each-way 250-1 bet365
0.5pt each-way 125-1 bet365
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Robert MacIntyre has been among the market leaders on the DP World Tour every time he has teed up in the last month, but the Scottish left-hander has been costing his followers dear. A missed cut in Singapore was followed by 57th in Thailand and 37th in India.
Punters have corrected the opening shows, with Antoine Rozner taking over as favourite for this week’s Kenya Open. The Frenchman is in rock-solid form and was winner of a similar event in Mauritius just before Christmas so should contend. Preference, though, is for each-way options at bigger prices.
Steve Palmer’s top tip
Jayden Schaper 40-1
The career of Jayden Schaper could be about to take off. The 21-year-old South African, magnificent as an amateur, has not managed to get off the Sunshine Tour yet, but recent form has been encouraging and Muthaiga could be ideal terrain for a DPWT breakthrough.
Schaper ended last year as an almost permanent fixture on Sunshine Tour leaderboards and his last seven starts on the DPWT have yielded results of 18-9-26-9-MC-17-13. This accurate operator carded four rounds of par or better on his first look at a quirky Indian Open venue last time out.
This week Schaper tees up in his home continent at a track he knows from finishing 34th when out of form in last year’s Kenya Open.
Next best bet
Marcus Kinhult 40-1
The short, tight, fiddly Muthaiga layout is also ideal for Marcus Kinhult, who has finished 12th and eighth in his two starts there. The Swede was sixth in the Andalucia Masters in October and eighth spot in the Dubai Desert Classic in January saw him bank another healthy cheque.
Kinhult, 11th and eighth on the Nordic Golf League in his last two spins, won the British Masters in 2019 and could be ready for his second DPWT victory at the age of 26.
Adrien Saddier 66-1
Ewen Ferguson 55-1
Jens Fahrbring 250-1
Francesco Laporta 125-1
Adrien Saddier won on the Challenge Tour in 2016, then came close to a second success in the 2017 Kenya Open at Muthaiga. The Frenchman finished second six years ago and has a strong record in Africa generally, with sixth spot in the 2013 Nelson Mandela Championship, seventh in the 2018 SA Open and seventh in last year’s Dimension-Data Pro-Am. He arrives in Kenya following five months of solid form so expect a bold bid for a DPWT breakthrough this week.
Ewen Ferguson led at Muthaiga by four shots going into the Sunday of last year’s Kenya Open, but nerves got the better of the Scot and he dropped to eighth place. The Glaswegian responded manfully to the setback, though, winning the Qatar Masters just three weeks later, then the ISPS Handa World Invitational in August. He was second in the Made In HimmerLand in September and this accurate sort is perfect for Muthaiga.
Jens Fahrbring, third in the South African Open just before Christmas and solid for 53 holes in India last time out, was a playoff loser in the 2018 Kenya Open at Muthaiga. The two-time Challenge Tour champion is a neat and tidy player who could go well at enormous odds, while Francesco Laporta can also figure.
Laporta, a two-time Challenge Tour winner and two-time DPWT runner-up, finished third in the 2017 Kenya Open at Muthaiga. The Italian, sixth at Wentworth in the 2021 BMW PGA, is well suited to this assignment.
Muthaiga course guide
Course Muthaiga Golf Club, Nairobi, Kenya
Prize money $2m ($333,400 to the winner)
Length 7,228 yards
Par 71 – four par-fives; nine par-fours; five par-threes
Field 156 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Adrian Otaegui (82), Adri Arnaus (86), Robert MacIntyre (94), Oliver Bekker (110), Rikuya Hoshino (122)
Course records – 72 holes 265 James Lee, Maarten Lafeber, Lee James 18 holes 61 Jacob Okello (2008 PGK Masters)
Course winners taking part Lorenzo Gagli, Ashun Wu
When to bet By 4am on Thursday morning
When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 10am on Thursday
Time difference Kenya is three hours ahead of the UK and Ireland
Course type Parkland
Course overview The Kenya Open has been around since 1967, being staged at Muthaiga 41 times, including as a Challenge Tour event from 2009 through 2012 and in 2017 and 2018. Last year was the first Kenya Open at Muthaiga to carry DP World Tour status.
Story of last year Ashun Wu cruised to a four-shot victory for a fourth DPWT title
Weather forecast Sunny and warm, with temperatures peaking at 29C. Calm mornings followed by breezy afternoons all four days
Type of player suited to the challenge Accurate drivers like Ashun Wu, Lorenzo Gagli, Aaron Rai, Robert Dinwiddie, Maarten Lafeber have won at Muthaiga
Key attribute Accuracy
Ten of the 18 Challenge Tour events at Muthaiga were won by a British player.
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