Prop bet #1: Getting some Gibbs
Since Week 7, only Alvin Kamara has seen more targets per game than Jahmyr Gibbs who’s turned 26 targets into 23 catches for 189 yards and has recorded 35+ yards receiving in each of those four games.
With David Montgomery back, Gibbs’ snaps are down but his role in the passing game has actually increased as he’s getting more designed plays and his targets per routes run has also increased.
Gibbs’ receiving total will be a popular play but as of Tuesday, that number is still 27.5 (-114 to the Over) when some books are as high as 30.5. His closing number was a similar 27.5 last week before he caught all six of his targets for 59 yards. It was also a game with a spread similar to Thursday’s 7.5-point line.
It’s an indoor game and the short week might even benefit the Green Bay Packers, creating a more neutral game script which is always better for running back receiving opportunities.
There are also a lot of injuries on the Packers’ defensive side with linebacker De’Vondre Campbell exiting last week, corner Jaire Alexander being inactive last week, and starting safety Rudy Ford listed as questionable after also being inactive against the Chargers.
With a stale number, a big passing role, a banged-up opposition, and a perfect setting indoors, I’m backing Gibbs in his receiving markets.
Jahmyr Gibbs prop: Over 27.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #2: Don’t doubt Doubs
Green Bay ran 3-WR sets at 70% last week vs. the Chargers and Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, and Jayden Reed all ran between 32 to 35 routes on 43 dropbacks.
Entering the indoor game that should feature some negative game script for the Packers, Doubs has the best value on his receiving total which sits at 20.5 compared to Watson’s 45.5 total and Reed’s 50.5 total.
It’s a pretty big discrepancy for a trio of receivers who saw roughly the same amount of snaps/routes, and Doubs led or tied for the team lead in targets (six) and receptions (five). His 53 yards also paced this WR trio.
Doubs had a closing receiving total of 34.5 yards last week and with Aaron Jones possibly out, there could be even more targets to go around. This number should be around 38.5 to 40.5 in my books. Jordan Love is coming off a career day and Doubs had the game-winning touchdown.
Doubs also went 9/95/0 on 12 targets vs. the Detroit Lions in Week 4. I’ve also put a half unit on his 65+ receiving yards at +550.
Romeo Doubs prop: Over 20.5 receiving yards (-125 at PointsBet)
Prop bet #3: Goal-line Gibbs
David Montgomery is as short as -192 for a TD while Gibbs can be found as long as +100, and looking at the recent red-zone work, this might not be priced that accurately.
Since Montgomery returned to the lineup two games ago, Gibbs has four carries inside the 5-yard line for three rushing TDs compared to Monty who has three carries and just one score. Gibbs also has an extra target inside the 20.
Even last week when Monty outrushed Gibbs 12-7, the work inside the 20-yard line was split evenly with both backs getting three carries in the red zone that resulted in each back finding the end zone.
With both getting run near the goal line, there shouldn’t be a nearly 80-point difference in their TD prices. Gibbs was even on the field more than Monty last week with a 56% to 41% snap-share advantage.
I don’t love playing TDs at around even money, but with an indoor setting and likely beneficial game script, it’s hard to ignore the Gibbs price when Montgomery is -192 in places. Gibbs has TDs in four straight games and faces a short-week defense that could be without three or four starters.
Jahmyr Gibbs prop: Anytime TD (+100 at bet365)