Tuesday, February 27, 2024

NFL Week 14 Preview: Odds, Picks for Every Game, Every Team

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Here’s everything you need to know about the NFL this week with our NFL Week 14 preview: odds and picks for every game and every team.

We’ll go through the latest NFL odds for every game in Week 14, plus how to bet on every team in each game, with a focus on bets for fans of those teams (or those who just want to rent a rooting interest for a game), with my picks at the end.

Regardless of your level of betting experience, this is the NFL preview for you. These bets are designed to give you something to cheer for, with the updated odds for every game and every team. So let’s get to the picks!

NFL Week 14 Preview: Odds, Picks for Every Game, Every Team

NFL Week 14 Betting Preview by Schedule

Rams vs Ravens Odds, Picks

Sunday, Dec 10

1:00pm ET

FOX

Rams Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

+7.5

-118

40.5

-105o / -115u

+290

Ravens Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

-7.5

-104

40.5

-105o / -115u

-360

What you need to know:

  • Weather will play a big role around the NFL this weekend as windy conditions are expected across the league, though the East Coast looks like it’ll get the worst of it and this appears to be the most weather-impacted game with expected wins well over 10 mph and a 50% chance of rain. The total has dropped from 44 to 40 and will likely fall more before kickoff, but the spread has mostly stayed put.
  • The Ravens have a significant rest advantage at home coming out of the bye while the Rams are coming off a physical game against a tough Browns defense, plus a cross-country flight. John Harbaugh is 60% ATS out of the bye week in the regular season, while Sean McVay and Matt Stafford have struggled against teams with an extra week to prepare and are a combined 6-15-1 ATS (29%).
  • If you’re looking to bet the Ravens, but get under the key number, you might consider playing just the first half. Baltimore is 10-2 ATS in the first half, best in the league, and Lamar Jackson is 66% ATS in first halves for his career. Home favorites of seven or less are also 57% ATS in the first half after a bye.

How to bet the Rams: Kyren Williams Anytime TD +115 (FanDuel)

The Rams offense is really cooking now that it’s finally healthy, and Kyren Williams has been one of the league’s breakout stars. Sean McVay’s offense is always at its best when the run game works first, opening up the play action and making all that movement work.

Williams had had a great nose for the end zone. He’s scored 10 touchdowns in his eight games this season, with multiple scores in half of them and at least one TD in all but two. We shouldn’t be getting a plus number on Williams to score a TD at this point. He’s about as likely as anyone in the NFL any given game.

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How to bet the Ravens: Ravens -7

The Rams offense is good but worse on the road, 19th in DVOA vs. 6th at home, but the real mismatch here is the other side of the ball. The Rams defense is the worst unit on the field and simply lacks talent, and the Ravens offense should be able to get whatever it wants. Los Angeles also has the worst special teams unit in the league, always a problem against John Harbaugh, and the Rams’ line could have problems against Baltimore’s top-10 pass rush.

I love the weather impact on this game for Baltimore. The Ravens are built for this, winning with defense and an ugly old-school script, handing the ball off to Gus Edwards and a power rushing attack. You know who’s not good in bad weather? Matt Stafford. Stafford is 7-14-1 ATS in games with 10+ mph wind (33%), and he’s also 17-37-2 ATS (31%) from November forward against teams over .500.

The Ravens are well over .500 and are the much better team, rested and at home with bye week trends in their favor. Baltimore will get the job done.

My thoughts: Bet Ravens -7

This is my favorite side of the week. I love the matchup for Baltimore, and the trends love the Ravens too. I’m enjoying the Rams, but folks got a little too excited after they beat up on the terrible Cardinals and a Browns squad missing most of its offense.

Baltimore is a class or three above the Rams and I’ll trust it rested at home in the weather. Be sure to grab the -7 if you can, but I don’t mind -7.5 if necessary. It also sets up as a great teaser leg, or you can play just the first half to get under the key number.


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Jaguars vs Browns Odds, Picks

Sunday, Dec 10

1:00pm ET

CBS

Jaguars Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

+3

-105

31.5

-110o / -110u

+136

Browns Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

-3

-115

31.5

-110o / -110u

-162

Why we’re waiting for now:

We have no idea who’s playing quarterback for either team.

Trevor Lawrence had his ankle stepped on late in Monday night’s game and certainly appears to be in doubt despite practicing. This line flipped from Jaguars -3 to Jaguars +3, indicating that Lawrence is likely out. The total also plummeted from 38.5 on Sunday morning to 30.5 on Thursday. That’s partly due to the Lawrence injury, but also because of a bad weather forecast that suggests temperatures in the 30s with wind and a chance of rain. On top of all that, we still don’t know who will play quarterback for the Ravens.

I wanted the under in this game with two outstanding defenses and shaky offenses, but the under got nuked with the total dropping. Now we’ll have to wait and see if this is C.J. Beathard versus Dorian Thompson-Robinson.


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Colts vs Bengals Odds, Picks

Sunday, Dec 10

1:00pm ET

CBS

Colts Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

+1.5

-115

43.5

-110o / -110u

+100

Bengals Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

-1.5

-105

43.5

-110o / -110u

-118

What you need to know:

  • It’s yet another potential weather game, though this one does seem to be less threatened than some of the others. Still, we’re looking at winds around 10 mph and a chance of rain. However, that hasn’t stopped bettors from taking the over as the total has risen from 40 to 44 at most books.
  • This might be something of a “Loser Leaves Town” game in the AFC playoff picture with the Colts at 7-5 and the Bengals at 6-6. The stakes are high, but both teams are probably a little worse than their record. The Colts are third in our Luck Rankings, while the Bengals rank fourth.

How to bet the Colts: Indianapolis -1

These teams are pretty even and both around league average, so it’s fitting that both are on the fringe of the playoff race playing in effectively a coin-flip game. But Indianapolis looks just a little bit better. The Colts are better coached and much better defensively.

Cincinnati ranks last in DVOA on first downs, so the Colts can play on the front foot. The Bengals have been especially bad in run defense, and the Colts have run the ball well even without Jonathan Taylor. Indianapolis should dominate this game in the trenches. The Colts rank top 10 in Run Block Win Rate and have one of the league’s best defensive lines, especially now that run stuffer Grover Stewart is back.

The Colts defense has also been drastically better on the road this season, top five by DVOA versus bottom five at home. Indianapolis can win this old school, in the trenches and with hard-nosed defense.

How to bet the Bengals: Joe Mixon over 85.5 rushing + receiving yards

The Colts defense is built to limit receiver impact and take away big plays down the field, and that sets up a familiar script for Jake Browning. He’s thrown to his big weapons in key spots, especially Ja’Marr Chase, but there’s a whole lot of Joe Mixon both running and catching quick dump-off passes.

The Colts allow the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, and Mixon is a workhorse. I like playing the combo line for both rushing and receiving yards because it gives us a few outs. If Cincinnati is ahead, it’ll pound the rock with Mixon. If the Bengals are behind, maybe he gets there on receiving yards. Mixon has gone over this line in two of the past three games with Browning.

My thoughts: Bet Colts -1

The Bengals are likely a bit overvalued after their big upset win over the Jaguars. Double-digit underdogs that win by seven or less — like Cincinnati did — are just 15–26–1 ATS the following game (37%). Cincinnati’s big win on national television is likely buying us some value, and I don’t really love the Colts, but I do like them in this matchup.


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Lions vs Bears Odds, Picks

Sunday, Dec 10

1:00pm ET

FOX

Lions Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

-3

-122

43.5

-105o / -115u

-174

Bears Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

+3

+100

43.5

-105o / -115u

+144

What you need to know:

  • It looked like weather would be a huge factor early with winds as high as 20-to-30 mph, but now it seems things may calm to around 10 mph. The total has reflected the weather report, opening at 46.5 on Sunday before plummeting all the way to around 40, then rebounding back to around 43.5. Notably, Justin Fields is 3-11 ATS (21%) in games with 10+ mph winds, the worst active QB.
  • Chicago is at home and rested after a bye week. Home underdogs after the bye week cover 63% of the time in the first half, but road favorites of under six against rested opponents are 63% for the game and 65% in just the second half.
  • The Bears have won seven of the past 11 in the rivalry, and these games are almost always close. Eight of the past 10 have finished within one score.

How to bet the Lions: Under 43.5

The Bears took a lot of heat for paying so much for Montez Sweat at the trade deadline, but Chicago’s defense has been trending up in a huge way and ranks sixth in DVOA over the past five weeks. Chicago is stopping the run well, and the Bears can keep this Lions attack somewhat in check, especially considering how much Jared Goff tends to struggle outdoors in what could still be negative conditions.

This is not a game where the Lions will be expected to hang a big number, so the defense will have to bounce back and contain a lackluster Bears offense. In division games Week 14 or later, trends look under for games played outdoors (62% to the under) with a total between 40 and 47 (56%), or where the home team’s under rate is at least 80% on the season (60%).

Be grateful for the uptick on the total, grab the best under you can find, and hope the wind comes back around to muck things up further.

How to bet the Bears: Justin Fields 100+ rushing yards (+500 bet365)

We hit this exact bet a few weeks ago when Fields played the Lions, though we got over double the price then. Books are starting to wise up, but let’s go back to the well again.

Fields ran for 104 yards his last game against Detroit, and also ran for 147 and 132 yards in the two games against the Lions a year ago. That’s three straight times hitting this prop against Detroit, whose defense has cratered over the middle of the season and will only be worse without Alim McNeill.

This is a spot to skip the escalator and just play the outlier. Fields’ rushing prop for this game is set at 60.5 yards, but he’s only gone over that once all season, in that Lions game. Don’t play the median outcome, just the long tail upside.

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My thoughts: No bet for me

I was leaning Bears and under early in the week, but money came in on both of those angles and robbed much of the value. I’ll keep an eye on a possible live Lions bet, but otherwise don’t need action here, unless we get wind (pun intended) of more significant weather.


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Buccaneers vs Falcons Odds, Picks

Sunday, Dec 10

1:00pm ET

CBS

Buccaneers Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

+2.5

-115

40.5

-110o / -110u

+110

Falcons Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

-2.5

-105

40.5

-110o / -110u

-130

What you need to know:

  • This is a huge game in the battle for the NFC South. The Falcons lead the division by a game over both the Buccaneers and Saints and are 3-0 in division games, including a win against Tampa Bay. This is a game the Buccaneers need to have to stay alive in the hunt for the postseason.
  • Both defenses also have key injuries. Tampa Bay’s star linebackers both got hurt last week. Lavonte David is practicing and looks much more likely to play than Devin White, but he’s been far better this year, especially against the run, and that’s key in this matchup. Star CB A.J. Terrell is practicing for Atlanta, but still in concussion protocol, and he’s a key name to watch in a big matchup against Mike Evans. It looks like David Onyemata should be good to go too.
  • Weather should not be a factor in this one as Atlanta can just close the dome if necessary.

How to bet the Buccaneers: Tampa Bay +1.5

The Falcons lead the division but the Buccaneers grade out as the better team. Tampa Bay ranks ahead of the Falcons in DVOA on offense, defense and special teams. The Buccaneers defense is the best unit on the field and has been stout against the run as long as Vita Vea has been around, and that’s huge against an Atlanta squad that runs the ball as much as anyone. Tampa’s pass rush is also trending up, and the Buccaneers defense has been far better on the road at third in DVOA versus 21st at home.

The Buccaneers can stop the run and slow the Falcons offense, and Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans should be able to attack a beatable pass defense. Both pass defenses have been bad lately, but only the Buccaneers have guys who can take advantage. From Week 14 forward, underdogs on a one-game winning streak like Tampa are 50-20-1 ATS (71%) in division matchups.

The Buccaneers look like a solid teaser option too, crossing the key numbers of three and seven. Tampa Bay has only failed to cover a spread that high against the best of the NFC (Philadelphia, Detroit and San Francisco), and Atlanta has only won by nine or more twice.

How to bet the Falcons: Under 41

The Buccaneers definitely have the better defense, and the Falcons aren’t exactly scaring anyone offensively or putting up big numbers. Atlanta will have to do its part defensively to win this one, and the script looks under. Both teams are 8-4 to the under this season, with Atlanta games averaging under 39 PPG and Tampa games under 40 PPG. Both the Falcons and Buccaneers have gone under 41 in eight of 12 games this season.

Todd Bowles road unders have been a smart angle historically at 30-17 to the under (64%), the second-most profitable coach in our Action Labs system. So too for Baker Mayfield when the total is below 44 (20-9 to the under (69%), the second-most profitable quarterback). There are also trends backing the under for late-season division matchups with a home favorite under a touchdown (57% to the under) and with totals of 40-47 points (56%).

And then there’s my favorite stat, just the perfect summary for this awful NFC South. We’ve had six division games played so far between the Falcons, Buccaneers, Saints and Panthers. Not one of those games has even finished with 40 points. NFC South games are averaging 35.5 PPG this season, and the lowest one so far? You guessed it: Falcons-Buccaneers the first time around at just 29 points.

My thoughts: Bet Under 41

I love that NFC South stat, just a wonderful encapsulation of a bad division. The worst part about these terrible divisions we get every few years is that the teams are all so bad that we’re forced to keep paying attention all the way to Week 18. I’m expecting a playoff vibe and a tough battle where both coaches settle for field goals in the red zone. Give me the under.


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Panthers vs Saints Odds, Picks

Sunday, Dec 10

1:00pm ET

FOX

Panthers Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

+5.5

-115

37.5

-110o / -110u

+184

Saints Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

-5.5

-105

37.5

-110o / -110u

-220

Why we’re waiting for now:

I grabbed Panthers +6.5 on The Hot Read on Sunday night, pretty much always happy to grab that many points against a favored Dennis Allen. I still like that position, but the line has now dropped and we’re still waiting on pretty major injury news from New Orleans.

We still don’t know if Derek Carr will be ready to go — I’m skeptical and not sure it really hurts the Saints all that much even if they have to turn to Jameis Winston — but now Chris Olave is back on the injury report and New Orleans is already missing pretty much every other receiver. I’ll likely end up on the Panthers either way, but we might get a better line again if we wait for positive New Orleans injury news so let’s see how things shake out.

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Texans vs Jets Odds, Picks

Sunday, Dec 10

1:00pm ET

CBS

Texans Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

-3.5

-115

33.5

-105o / -115u

-200

Jets Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

+3.5

-105

33.5

-105o / -115u

+168

What you need to know:

  • This also looks like another weather game, with wind and rain possible. The total has dropped from 37, where I bet the under on the Hot Read on Sunday night, to as low as 33 at most books. Money has also come in on the Jets, dropping them from 6- to 3.5-point underdogs.
  • Zach Wilson is back! Never has an exclamation point felt so wrong. Last week’s starter, Tim Boyle, has been cut, so I guess we’re doing this Wilson thing again.

How to bet the Texans: Under 33.5

I probably don’t need to tell you the Jets offense is terrible. They rank last both rushing and passing over the past five weeks and Zach Wilson isn’t exactly going to fix that, especially with Houston’s defense trending up. The Texans’ defensive line should wreak havoc, and the Jets are averaging under 10 PPG over their past six games.

So can the Texans get to 24? You’d think so, but Houston has been at 22 or below in all but four games, and don’t forget that the Jets defense is still the best unit on the field. The pass defense remains spectacular and has completely befuddled elite quarterbacks. C.J. Stroud has been incredible as a rookie, but he could be in for a rude awakening on the road.

This still looks like an under play, even at the reduced total. Unders at 37 or below over the past four calendar years are 28-7-1 (80%), and they’re 16-4-1 (80%) with a total at 38 or below entering this week. All the better for the under if we get some weather to muck things up too.

How to bet the Jets: Tyler Conklin over 2.5 receptions (-135, bet365) | 5+ catches (+450)

The Texans defense tends to funnel the ball toward the middle of the field by design in something of an umbrella zone, and Houston has allowed more receptions to opposing tight ends than any team (81 total, 6.75 per game). The Texans have allowed 12 opposing tight ends to record at least three catches, one per game, and eight tight ends to hit at least five catches.

Conklin isn’t much, but he’s been a security blanket for Wilson and might get a bunch of looks since Wilson will likely be under pressure all game. Conklin has at least three catches in nine of 12 games (75%), but that goes up to 7-of-8 (88%) when Wilson starts and finishes a game.

My thoughts: Tyler Conklin over 2.5 receptions | 5+ catches (+450)

Conklin averages 4.0 catches for 45 yards in those Wilson games, and he has at least five catches in three of the eight. That’s a 37.5% hit rate, double the 18.2% implied at +450, so what the heck? Let’s take the first ever Tyler Conklin escalator and have a day. I still like the under, but I’ll ride with the Under 37 ticket we grabbed on The Hot Read on Sunday night.


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Bills vs Chiefs Odds, Picks

Sunday, Dec 10

4:25pm ET

CBS

Bills Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

+1.5

-112

48.5

-110o / -110u

+102

Chiefs Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

-1.5

-108

48.5

-110o / -110u

-120

What you need to know:

  • There’s plenty of recent history between these teams. Most memorable was the 13 seconds at the end of regulation in the playoff game that still haunts Buffalo. Patrick Mahomes is 3-2 against Josh Allen, including 2-0 in the playoffs, and this will be the fifth of the six matchups in Kansas City. The road team won all three previous regular-season matchups — so Allen is 2-0 in Kansas City in the regular season — and the games have been super high scoring, averaging 57 PPG.
  • Neither team is particularly happy with how things are trending over the past five weeks. The Chiefs rank around league average offensively and below average passing, and they also rank last against the run by DVOA. The Bills are actually running the ball very effectively, and a defense that briefly cratered has rebounded somewhat to around league-average.
  • Two of my favorite, most reliable trends go head-to-head, so good luck choosing. Josh Allen is incredible as an underdog at 16-9 ATS (64%) and a 35% ROI on the moneyline, but Patrick Mahomes as a three-point favorite or anything worse is 15-5-1 ATS lifetime (75%). He’s also 16-3 straight up after a loss, so trends won’t help us here.
  • Buffalo is coming off a much-needed bye week, so the Bills have a major rest advantage.
  • Both teams badly need this one. Kansas City needs to find some offensive rhythm and still hopes to contend for the AFC 1-seed, and Buffalo might need to run the table to make the playoffs.

How to bet the Bills: Josh Allen over 30.5 rushing yards & escalator

We usually get points in this matchup, so that sets up well for prop overs.

Josh Allen rushing overs are the first thing I look for in every big Buffalo game. The pattern for years now has been the Bills saving Allen’s legs in less important games, then dialing up designed runs and extra scrambles in the games that matter most. Allen has the most EPA on QB scrambles this season, and the numbers from recent years speak for themselves.

In 22 games against non-playoff teams over the past two years, Allen has run 6.4 times for 39.5 yards. In 16 games against playoff teams, those numbers spike to 8.7 rushes for 53.0 yards. This year, in four games against presumed playoff games, Allen’s at 7.8 runs for 44.5 yards and over this line in three of the four, compared to just 4.4 carries for 20.5 yards in the other eight games.

This prop has been money against the Chiefs in particular. Allen has at least seven rushes and at least 32 yards in all five games against Kansas City, averaging 9.2 carries for 57.8 yards and going over this line in all five at 32, 59, 42, 68, and 88 yards. All the better if Chiefs linebackers Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill are still out. I’ll play multiple units on Over 30.5 and also sprinkle 50+ yards at +320 with just a dash of hope on 75+ yards at +1425 (bet365).

Remember Gabriel Davis? Chiefs fans do. Davis lit up Kansas City for 201 yards and four scores in that aforementioned playoff matchup, and he could be in for another big game here. Trent McDuffie has done a great job against opposing WR1s, but the Chiefs rank bottom 10 against WR2s by DVOA. Check out some of the lines allowed by Kansas City this season to WR2s: Christian Kirk 11/110, Allen Lazard 3/61/1, Jordan Addison 6/64/1, Josh Palmer 5/133, Jerry Jeudy 2/50/1, DeVonta Smith 6/99 and Jakobi Meyers 6/79/1.

Davis has been feast or famine this season, so there’s no use playing a median outcome. If he pops, he really pops, usually with at least one long touchdown. Davis has had at least five catches for 80 yards and a score in four games already this season. We can play an SGP for just 80 yards and an anytime TD at +1400 at PointsBet, and that looks badly mispriced compared to the rest of the market.

How to bet the Chiefs: Fourth quarter over 13.5 | Both teams to score in the fourth quarter (-170, bet365) | Jerick McKinnon 5 catches & 50 receiving yards SGP

These teams are so evenly matched. Both offenses are obviously great, led by the best two quarterbacks in the league, and both power rushing attacks are underrated. The Chiefs have the better defense, but are trending down while the Bills are trending up. This game is being priced correctly as a coin flip and these matchups usually come down to whoever scores last.

One thing that’s been consistent across the Mahomes vs. Allen duels: things tend to start out a bit slow, then pick up for a torrid fourth quarter finish. Buffalo’s offense has been worse in the first half this season and Kansas City is better early, so that fits the script. Both teams have scored in the fourth quarter of all five matchups so far, with 10, 28, 14, 16 and 13 points in those games. That’s an average of 16.2 PPG in the final stanza as Mahomes and Allen unleash everything in their arsenal.

There’s also one key name I’m monitoring who could play a major role in this game: Jerick McKinnon. He may not return from injury, but if he does, he could play a big role. The Bills rank top three in most receptions and yards allowed to opposing backs, and they’ve already allowed four RBs this season to catch at least five passes for 50 yards. McKinnon had 5/54 in that playoff shootout, and he’s a dangerous weapon and a terrific pass blocker so he could be on the field a lot. There are no McKinnon lines yet, but keep an eye out.

My thoughts: Josh Allen over 30.5 rushing yards & escalator | Gabriel Davis 80 yards & TD SGP (+1400)

I was all set to bet the Bills here and considered Buffalo +3 on The Lookahead, but waited hoping to snag a +3.5 and now it’s gone the other way and squashed the value. I still like Buffalo, but I’m betting the Bills now by playing their props. I love the Allen rushing prop, and the Davis line looks way off too. By the way, if you want to get wild, Davis for 80 and a TD with 50 Allen rushing yards is +4500 at PointsBet.

The other way to play the Bills is by getting aggressive in the futures market. If Buffalo wins here, I’ll like them again against the Cowboys next week. If they win both of those, everything changes. The Bills are still live to win the division in that scenario (+1700, Caesars), and if Buffalo wins out with a huge finish from Allen, he might still be live to steal the MVP at +5000 (BetRivers).

Buffalo is good, the defense has bounced back, and this still feels wide open. I’m playing it all.

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Broncos vs Chargers Odds, Picks

Sunday, Dec 10

4:25pm ET

CBS

Broncos Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

+2.5

-104

43.5

-115o / -105u

+126

Chargers Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

-2.5

-118

43.5

-115o / -105u

-148

Why we’re waiting for now:

I’m getting pretty sick of the Chargers. They’re just a walking injury report at this point. The past few years, when I picked every game on Wednesdays, the Chargers were almost a weekly “wait” and one of the last picks made on Saturday once we parsed through all the injury news. I switched columns this year, but we’re back to the same issue.

LA’s injury list is long, and it’s been long pretty much every week. Keenan Allen is one of the biggest question marks, and Denver’s stud corner Pat Surtain has also been limited in practice. That’s the most important matchup on the field for this toss-up division rivalry game, so we’ll wait for more news.


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Seahawks vs 49ers Odds, Picks

Sunday, Dec 10

4:05pm ET

FOX

Seahawks Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

+10.5

-110

46.5

-115o / -105u

+460

49ers Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

-10.5

-110

46.5

-115o / -105u

-620

What you need to know:

  • Does this even count as a division rivalry, the way things are playing out right now? San Francisco won all three meetings last season and won again in Seattle on Thanksgiving, and these games haven’t even been competitive. Average score these past four meetings: San Francisco 30, Seattle 14, with all four wins coming by over a touchdown.
  • Seattle has a big rest advantage. The Seahawks played last Thursday on full rest, so they’ve had a little mini-bye here while the 49ers are coming off that huge game against the Eagles.
  • Give Seattle the desperation advantage too. The Seahawks have lost three in a row and play the Eagles next week. Their postseason hopes appear to be fading quickly.
  • If you’re thinking about betting on Christian McCaffrey to score a TD, don’t bother. Seattle does indeed allow the second-most rushing TDs to running backs and the fourth-most fantasy points, but McCaffrey’s line has risen to a laughable -350 or worse and just isn’t worth playing at that price.

How to bet the Seahawks: Seattle +10.5

Look, I’m not going to pretend to make an actual case for Seattle. You watched the games against San Francisco. These games have been over by the end of the first quarter, and betting against the 49ers feels like stepping in front of a speeding train right now. But that’s exactly why there’s value on the number.

Trends love this spot for Seattle. In division games Week 14 and later, an underdog that lost by 8-to-20 points in the previous matchup between two teams is 58% ATS in the rematch, and ‘dogs that failed to cover by 7-to-14 points are 59% ATS in the rematch. Geno Smith is 71% ATS as a division underdog and 70% ATS as a ‘dog of over a touchdown, and Pete Carroll is 63% ATS as a division ‘dog and 61% ATS after a loss.

Close your eyes, swallow hard, and bet the trends for a desperate team in a good situational spot.

How to bet the 49ers: Seattle Team Total under 17.5

This is unquestionably a terrible matchup for Seattle. The Seahawks can’t tackle, a slight problem against the 49ers, and Geno Smith struggles badly under pressure and won’t get much help from his offensive line, especially against a rabid top-five 49ers pass rush. Seattle is bad at defending the middle of the field and bad on early downs. It’s a nightmare matchup.

The Seahawks rank 24th in DVOA over the past five weeks, and while the defense has been bad, the offense has struggled mightily too (24th). They’re struggling to run, even if Kenneth Walker returns, and Smith hasn’t fared well in this matchup. The Seahawks have scored 7, 13, 23, and 13 in the past four games against San Francisco. That’s under this team total in three of the four, and the one over came on a garbage-time TD in the final two minutes.

San Francisco is going to score, but with a spread this high, a 49ers cover will likely mean the defense showing up too. Might as well just play direct and take the team total.

My thoughts: No bet for me

This is an awful matchup for Seattle, but the situational spot and trends love the Seahawks and the line is so inflated that I just can’t be bothered by it. I expect Seattle to lose without much of a fight, and that could hurt its line for next week, so I’ll play by grabbing the Eagles next Monday night on The Lookahead when they come to Seattle.


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Vikings vs Raiders Odds, Picks

Sunday, Dec 10

4:05pm ET

FOX

Vikings Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

-3

-106

40.5

-110o / -110u

-164

Raiders Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

+3

-114

40.5

-110o / -110u

+138

Why we’re waiting for now:

It certainly looks like we have the information we need, but let’s be cautious with both teams coming out of the bye week. Minnesota has named Joshua Dobbs its starting quarterback and it also looks like Justin Jefferson may finally play.

Still, the line and the total haven’t budged on this game, and those two are so important that I’m waiting for definitive news before we go forward. I’m also leaning under, and there’s a chance the total rises once Dobbs and Jefferson are officially official.


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Sunday Night Football: Eagles vs Cowboys Odds, Picks

Sunday, Dec 10

8:20pm ET

NBC

Eagles Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

+3.5

-122

51.5

-110o / -110u

+158

Cowboys Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

-3.5

+100

51.5

-110o / -110u

-188

What you need to know:

  • Needless to say, this is a monster game. The Cowboys need this to have any real chance at the division and a home game in the playoffs, even the 1-seed, while an Eagles win would keep Philadelphia firmly in control of its 1-seed destiny at the top of the NFC and right the ship after the 49ers loss.
  • Dallas was 2.5-point favorites on The Lookahead last week when we played the Cowboys, but Philadelphia’s loss pushed the line past the key number of 3 to the other side at -3.5, a pivotal flip. The total rose from 48 on Sunday to as high as 53 but has now ticked back to around 52.
  • Could that Eagles loss and negative momentum provide some value on the line? Teams with at least a 60% win rate coming off a loss by 20 or more are 82-40-1 ATS (67%) over the last couple decades, including an untouchable 40-7 ATS (85%) between Weeks 8 and 15 when we know which teams are good, but before those great teams are resting for the postseason.
  • Both teams are relatively healthy, though the Eagles are still looking to get some defensive names back into the lineup. One key name to watch: Philadelphia TE Dallas Goedert looks likely to make his return this week, and his absence has really limited the Eagles’ versatility. Both teams rank in the bottom quartile of the league in DVOA against opposing tight ends.
  • The home team has won nine of the last 10 in this rivalry, and these teams have split the home-and-home in eight of the last 10 years. Philadelphia won at home. Dallas’s turn?

How to bet the Eagles: Jalen Hurts Anytime TD (-130, FanDuel) | Philadelphia to win after trailing at halftime (+950, FanDuel)

It’s remarkable the difference between these teams’ first and second halves.

Dallas has consistently been a first-half tem. The Cowboys rank 5th in DVOA in the first half but just 17th in the second half, and the Cowboys are especially deadly in the second quarter. Dallas is 9-3 ATS in the first half compared to just 5-7 for Philadelphia. The Eagles are a second-half team. They’re 9-3 ATS there, and they leap from 20th to 3rd in Offensive DVOA and from 24th to 12th in Defensive DVOA.

The Eagles have come from behind to win over and over this season, and the Cowboys just love to leave the door cracked and let Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott screw it up late. The headlines practically write themselves. At +950, that’s too juicy to not play.

As for the Jalen Hurts anytime TD, that’s basically an auto-play at -130. Hurts has a rushing touchdown in nine of 12 games this year, so that’s a 75% hit rate versus under 57% implied by -130. He has as good a chance to score as anyone in what should be one of the highest scoring games of the weekend. You can play both angles together at FanDuel for +1291 if you like.

How to bet the Cowboys: CeeDee Lamb 10+ catches 100+ yards SGP (+525, bet365) | Dak Prescott over 37.5 pass attempts | Cowboys 2Q -0.5

Philadelphia’s defense is the weakest unit on the field, particularly its pass defense. The Eagles defense ranks 21st in DVOA and 24th against the pass, and Dallas’s offense has been on fire with Dak Prescott firing the ball all over the field since the bye week.

The Cowboys’ pass rate over expectation has spiked, and Prescott is averaging 38 pass attempts per game over the last five and had a season-high 44 passes against the Eagles when they played last month. Prescott has been especially deadly on late downs, and Philadelphia’s defense ranks dead last on third downs. For better or for worse, this game will be in the hands of Dak Prescott. Most of his props are priced accordingly, but there’s value simply betting on volume with over 37.5 pass attempts.

Expect plenty of that volume to be directed toward CeeDee Lamb. Philadelphia ranks top three in fantasy points allowed to both quarterbacks and receivers. Lamb has seen a huge spike in production since the bye himself as Dallas moves him all over the field. He had 11 catches for 191 yards against the Eagles last month and had 10 catches for 120 yards and two scores in the previous meeting. Philly’s corners simply are no match for Lamb right now, and they’ve allowed more receptions and TDs to receivers than any team.

Lamb’s props are juiced too, but he’s had at least 11 catches and 116 yards in five games already this season. That’s almost half of them, so playing 10+ catches for 100+ yards looks like a great angle at +525, implied 16%. You can sprinkle a 10/150 SGP at +1200 (PointsBet) as an escalator if you like. He’s done that three times too, obviously including the last Eagles game.

The logic for the second quarter Cowboys angle is effectively laid out in the Eagles’ section. Dallas is at its best in the second quarter, and Philly as at its worst.

My thoughts: CeeDee Lamb 10/100 (+525) and 10/150 (+1200) escalator

No pick on a side is a bummer here, but that’s because I’m already on Dallas -2.5 from The Lookahead line a week ago and I think the line looks about right now that it’s flipped to the other side of the key number. I’m confident the Cowboys are the better team, but Philadelphia is specifically good at the little edges McCarthy always leaves there for the taking, so every point matters.

If you do like Dallas, attacking the futures market is probably a better investment. A win here would very likely make Dak Prescott the MVP favorite by Monday morning. I’ll invest in the game by playing CeeDee Lamb’s props and hope for another huge game since the Eagles just don’t have an answer.


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Monday Night Football: Packers vs Giants Odds, Picks

Monday, Dec 11

8:15pm ET

ABC

Packers Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

-6.5

-115

37

-110o / -110u

-330

Giants Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

+6.5

-105

37

-110o / -110u

+265

Why we’re waiting for now:

We usually wait on Monday night as final injury reports come out Saturday, and this is a spot where the Giants are coming out of a bye so we’re getting less information than usual.

There’s nothing in particular we’re waiting on outside of a potential weather report. Right now, we’re looking at temperatures in the 30s and 10-to-12 mph winds. Anything in the double digits makes wind a factor and may push us toward another primetime under.


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Monday Night Football: Titans vs Dolphins Odds, Picks

Monday, Dec 11

8:15pm ET

ESPN

Titans Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

+13.5

-110

46.5

-110o / -110u

+560

Dolphins Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

-13.5

-110

46.5

-110o / -110u

-800

Why we’re waiting for now:

One last Monday Night Football doubleheader in December! You shouldn’t have.

No, really … you shouldn’t have. Packers-Giants? Titans-Dolphins? Gross. Can we just credit Green Bay and Miami with wins and let them play a scrimmage instead?

Anyway, second verse, same as the first. We’ll get Saturday reports and circle back then. It’s obviously warmer in Florida, but there are potential double-digit winds in play here too.


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Week 14 Betting Card, Expert Picks

  • Ravens -7
  • Bucs/Falcons under 41
  • Colts -1
  • Josh Allen over 30.5 rushing yards | 50+ yards (+320) | 75+ (1425)
  • Gabriel Davis 80 receiving yards & anytime TD SGP (+1400)
  • Bills/Chiefs — both teams to score in 4th quarter
  • Tyler Conklin over 2.5 reception | 5+ catches (+450)
  • CeeDee Lamb 10 catches & 100 receiving yards SGP (+525) | 10/150 SGP escalator (+1200)
  • Week 15 Lookahead: Eagles -4 at Seahawks

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