Tuesday, February 27, 2024

NFL Week 14 Picks, Predictions, Props and Best Bets for Every Game

Must read

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

Wish Week 13 would have went better from a picks perspective, but .500 plus the Best-Bets hot streak is nothing to scoff at. I feel a little uncomfortable taking the over on a number of these games, but I’m trusting the gut once more. 

NFL Week 14 Betting Picks For Each Game

Date Game Matchup Week 14 Picks
Thursday, December 7 Patriots vs. Steelers Steelers -6, under 30
Sunday, December 10 Buccaneers vs. Falcons Buccaneers +2.5, under 39.5
Sunday, December 10 Rams vs. Ravens Rams +7.5, over 42.5
Sunday, December 10 Lions vs. Bears Lions -3.5, over 41
Sunday, December 10 Colts vs. Bengals Colts -1, over 42.5
Sunday, December 10 Jaguars vs. Browns Browns -1.5, over 34
Sunday, December 10 Panthers vs. Saints Panthers +5.5, under 37.5
Sunday, December 10 Texans vs. Jets Texans -.6.5, over 34.5
Sunday, December 10 Vikings vs. Raiders Vikings -3, over 40
Sunday, December 10 Seahawks vs. 49ers 49ers -10.5, over 47
Sunday, December 10 Bills vs. Chiefs Chiefs -2.5, over 47
Sunday, December 10 Broncos vs. Chargers Broncos +3, over 43
Sunday, December 10 Eagles vs. Cowboys Cowboys -3.5, under 53
Monday, December 11 Titans vs. Dolphins Dolphins -13.5, under 47
Monday, December 11 Packers vs. Giants Packers -6.5, over 37

NFL Week 14 Byes

  • Commanders
  • Cardinals 

Predictions for NFL Week 14

In this article, we also take a look at NFL Week 3 odds and our predictions for each NFL game.

Home teams are listed last.

Week 13 Record ATS: 6-6-1
Week 13 Record on Totals: 9-4
Season Record ATS: 100-88-5
Season Record on Totals: 94-95-4

Patriots vs. Steelers

Game Spread Moneyline Total
Patriots vs. Steelers Steelers -6 Pittsburgh -265; New England +215 30

I have to imagine some sportsbook is going to do a prop referencing who scores more, both teams’ offense, or both teams’ defense/special teams. I’m not saying I’d take the latter side, but I’d at least consider it.

Once again, Amazon doing spouses all over America a favor by still having this one in primetime.

Spread Pick: Steelers -6
Total Pick: Under 30

Buccaneers vs. Falcons

Game Spread Moneyline Total
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Falcons -2.5 Atlanta -135; Tampa Bay +114 39.5

I’m just not convinced the Falcons can win multiple games against “good” teams. No, the Jets and Saints aren’t really good at this juncture of the season, but they’re obviously a tier above the Panthers and Giants of the world.

Tampa Bay lost this matchup at home by three points back in Week 6, so it’s clear Vegas thinks something is a bit off with Atlanta as well.

Spread Pick: Buccaneers +2.5
Total Pick: Under 39.5

Rams vs. Ravens

Game Spread Moneyline Total
Rams vs. Ravens Ravens -7.5 Baltimore -340; Los Angeles +270 42

The Rams’ offense has been playing way better than I would have expected as of late. I’m not necessarily assuming they’ll beat the Ravens, nor would I feel comfortable throwing this in a teaser as they’re equally liable to getting blown out, but this isn’t a pushover LA team.

I think I’m just learning that I’m not as high on the Ravens as the general public seems to be. Given all the QB injuries, Baltimore might be able to simply walk into the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but I’m not confident they’re a significantly better team than the squad that lost in the divisional round to the Titans a few years back. I hope I’m wrong because I’m a major fan of Lamar Jackson and anyone not named Greg Roman, but I haven’t seen enough to be confident yet.

Spread Pick: Rams +7.5
Total Pick: Over 42

Lions vs. Bears

Game Spread Moneyline Total
Lions vs. Bears Lions -3.5 Detroit -170; Chicago +142 41

This is the same exact concept as last week against the Saints. At this point, Justin Fields is significantly better than Derek Carr, but both the Bears and Saints are pretty miserable teams. The Lions can and will score on this defense, but my only reserveation is that the weather could be a bit tricky in Chicago. If it’s a balmy-esque 30-plus degress come Sunday, I’ll take a Detroit win by double digits.

Spread Pick: Lions -3.5
Total Pick: Over 41

Colts vs. Bengals

Game Spread Moneyline Total
Colts vs. Bengals Colts -1 Indianapolis -115; Cincinnati -105 42.5

It’s crazy what a difference of 24 hours makes for these next two games. I would have assumed the Colts would be something like four-point favorites if Jake Browning continued to look miserable, but he was absolutely dynamic in the massive primetime win.

We’ve seen backup quarterbacks post impressive numbers on random weeks throughout the season, but sorta like the Will Levis turnaround from a couple of weeks ago, I just think more tape out on these guys hurts the upside. The Colts don’t have a super dangerous personnel so maybe it won’t matter, but the past month has been an exercise in not overreacting to new information and I’m going to hold on to that here with Indy.

Spread Pick: Colts -1
Total Pick: Over 42.5

Jaguars vs. Browns

Game Spread Moneyline Total
Jaguars vs. Browns Browns -1.5 Cleveland -122; Jacksonville +102 34

I guess the one amendment to the Bengals/Colts overreaction statement is that we have seen C.J. Beathard plenty throughout his career, and he’s just not a great backup. To be clear, he’s better than probably a half-dozen current backups, specifically the ones playing in New York, but we’re three years removed from having that same sorta conversation about the former Niners backup.

Plus, Joe Flacco is unequivocally better than almost any of these backups today and definitely makes the offense attractive to the point that I think the over is a near certainty.

Spread Pick: Browns -1.5
Total Pick: Over 34

Panthers vs. Saints

Game Spread Moneyline Total
Panthers vs. Saints Saints -5.5 New Orleans -230; Carolina +190 37.5

I don’t think the Panthers win, but I do think they’re in a good position to cover this one, and probably could be in contention to cover any of the upcoming spreads.

It’s not so much the firing of Frank Reich, or even an expected growth of Bryce Young. It’s just a bet that a bad NFL team will eventually get closer to league average in a lot of random categories, and that the just presumed natural improvement can help a team stumble into a good-luck win or two. The return of multiple key defensive pieces off injured reserve can be the first bullet point to that statement, but I’ll be honest when I say this Panthers team just isn’t bad enough to lose out the rest of the way.

Spread Pick: Panthers +5.5
Total Pick: Under 37.5

Texans vs. Jets

Game Spread Moneyline Total
Texans vs. Jets Texans -6.5 Houston -298; New York +240 34.5

I’m not going to stake my win/loss record on this statement, but I do feel confident that if Zach Wilson was to start this game, New York would at minimum cover the spread.

I have no idea if he’s going to start, or if he’s going to hold out and force Trevor Siemian to play, but if that does happen I wouldn’t blame Wilson at all. He’s been yo-yo’d so much by a miserable front office that he owes them zero favors at this point. That the Jets didn’t sign Joe Flacco or trade for a better backup at some point this season is going to go down as one of the worst non-moves a team has ever made.

Spread Pick: Texans -6.5
Total Pick: Over 34.5

Vikings vs. Raiders

Game Spread Moneyline Total
Vikings vs. Raiders Vikings -3 Minnesota -162; Las Vegas +136 40

This was easily the most difficult call of the slate. I think the Raiders post Josh McDaniels firing can compete with a lot of teams. They won’t win, or really get all that close by the end of the game, but they are far from bad.

I think Joshua Dobbs is a much better backup than a bunch of guys currently playing, but he’s prone to errors in the same way most backups are. I just don’t see the Raiders really forcing many of those errors to occur, which just gives the offense more opportunities for a big play. That big-play upside should only be enhanced with the return of Justin Jefferson (ankle) as well.

Spread Pick: Vikings -3
Total Pick: Over 40

Seahawks vs. 49ers

Game Spread Moneyline Total
Seahawks vs. 49ers 49ers -10.5 San Francisco -575; Seattle +425 47

I initially wrote down the Seahawks +10.5 because their offense is capable of a backdoor cover, but then I remembered the demolition that occurred on Thanksgiving night and I changed course. 

Vegas is too confident in the Niners, but I don’t think we’ll really see them get exposed until the playoffs. They’re clearly a cut above most teams, but more importantly, they’re just too well coached to struggle against the massive amount of shoulder-shrugging franchises currently trotting out every Sunday.

Spread Pick: 49ers -10.5
Total Pick: Over 47

Bills vs. Chiefs

Game Spread Moneyline Total
Bills vs. Chiefs Chiefs -2.5 Kansas City -142; Buffalo +120 47

I know recency bias suggests the Bills are going to win, but I’m not convinced of that. The Chiefs have been battled tested in critical situations and always have the best player in football every game. 

Just three weeks ago people were suggesting the Bills completely fell off the map and should fire head coach Sean McDermott. That changes because of a close to the Eagles and a bye week? Come on.

Spread Pick: Chiefs -2.5
Total Pick: Over 47

Broncos vs. Chargers

Game Spread Moneyline Total
Broncos vs. Chargers Chargers -3 Los Angeles -148; Denver +124 43

I’m a bit surprised the Chargers are even favored in this at all. That being said, that Brandon Staley still has a job is the most shocking part of this whole equation. Will that change after another divisional loss?

Spread Pick: Broncos +3
Total Pick: Over 43

Eagles vs. Cowboys

Game Spread Moneyline Total
Eagles vs. Cowboys Cowboys -3.5 Dallas -180; Philadelphia +150 53

I’m picking the Cowboys, but I’m not sure if it’s because I’ve lost faith in the Eagles, or if I believe in “America’s Team”. Can the answer be neither?

I know Mike McCarthy will choke in the playoffs like he always does, but there’s a lot of momentum in Dallas right now, bad opponents or not. And there’s a morale nugget that at least needs to be mentioned after the Eagles were absolutely annihilated in Philly. That this result probably won’t matter in the NFC East divisional race also plays a factor in my mind.

Spread Pick: Cowboys -3.5
Total Pick: Under 53

Titans vs. Dolphins

Game Spread Moneyline Total
Titans vs. Dolphins Dolphins -13.5 Miami -900; Tennessee +600 47

We’ll figure out where the Dolphins stand in the AFC, but it won’t be this week. Over/under one mention of Will Levis‘ nasty mayo obsession as ESPN struggles to make two bad Monday Night Football games matter?

Spread Pick: Dolphins -13.5
Total Pick: Under 47

Packers vs. Giants

Game Spread Moneyline Total
Packers vs. Giants Packers -6.5 Green Bay -285; New York +230 37

I’m absolutely nervous about this one as a Packers fan, but no return of Tyrod Taylor (ribs) or Darren Waller (hamstring) just feels like a monumental challenge. I have complete confidence Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry will find a way to keep the Giants in it, but there’s something happening here with Green Bay and I can’t ignore it anymore.

Spread Pick: Packers -6.5
Total Pick: Over 37

NFL Week 14 Best Bets

Next, we take a look at our favorite Week 3 NFL best bets at the best NFL betting sites. We went 6-2 with a couple of nice plus-money hits, but Trevor Lawrence‘s ankle injury ruined what would have been a nearly perfect week. Five straight weeks with a positive money swing; can we make it six in a row?

BetMGM Best Bets for NFL Week 14

BetMGM offers some of the best odds available for Week 14. If you’re not signed up at BetMGM yet, new players at BetMGM can use the BetMGM bonus code ROTOBONUS for a risk-free bet worth up to $1,000. Here are our NFL best bets for Week 14 at BetMGM.

  • Chiefs (-2.5) and Cowboys (-3) parlay (+250)

Caesars Sportsbook Best Bets for NFL Week 14

Caesars Sportsbook also has great betting odds for NFL Week 14. If you are not registered yet, use the Caesars Sportsbook promo code ROTOFULL for a first bet on Caesars.

  • Four-team seven-point teaser (+180) between Rams (+14), Bucs (+9.5), Seahawks (+17.5) and Broncos (+10)

WynnBET Best Bets for NFL Week 14

WynnBet has a strong menu of NFL Week 14 wagers to choose from, along with competitive odds. Sign up with the WynnBET promo code XROTO for up to $100 in free bets if you have yet to register at WynnBet.

  • Colts +1 (-115)
  • Vikings -3 (-105)

DraftKings Best Bets for NFL Week 14

DraftKings Sportsbook has special offers for new users just in time for Week 14 of the NFL season. here are our best picks available at DraftKings Sportsbook this week.

  • Three-team parlay (+180) with Texans moneyline, Dolphins moneyline and Giants/Packers alt over total (33.5)

FanDuel Best Bets for NFL Week 14

One of the most popular sportsbooks available is FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s take a look at our favorite betting picks with FanDuel odds.

  • Two-game parlay (+264) with overs on Lions/Bears total (40.5) and Vikings/Raiders (40.5)

BetRivers Best Bets for NFL Week 14

BetRivers is an up-and-coming and underrated sportsbook, and they are offering up to $500 in second-chance bets with the BetRivers bonus code. Bettors can use those for these picks on NFL Week 14.

  • Quick Pick – 49ers moneyline and over 46.5 total points (+123)

PointsBet Best Bets for NFL Week 14

For bettors looking for a unique way to wager, try the PointsBet promo code for our Week 14 NFL picks. You can try “PointsBetting” for Week 14 to maximize your return.

  • Giants/Packers over 36.5 (-115)

Look ahead at the NFL Week 15 odds as well, if you’re interested in getting ahead of the line movement.

Latest article