Tuesday, February 27, 2024

NFL futures: Divisional races that hold betting value

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No one expected Indy to be here with Gardner Minshew at QB, just like not many were expecting this strong of a rookie season from C.J. Stroud. Houston was dealt a tough blow with rookie standout WR Tank Dell now done for the season, and Indianapolis will also be without RB Jonathan Taylor for about a month.

If we’re looking for a value play here, let’s of course focus on the two teams at plus-money.

  • Indianapolis’ remaining schedule: @ CIN, PIT, @ ATL, LV, HOU
  • Houston’s remaining schedule: @ NYJ, @ TEN, CLE, TEN, IND

That Week 18 game could be for all the marbles if Jacksonville falters here. We prefer backing Stroud and Houston at +330 to win this division given Lawrence’s injury.

NFC East

  1. Philadelphia Eagles, 10-2 (-475)
  2. Dallas Cowboys, 9-3 (+380)

We have a massive NFC East matchup on “Sunday Night Football” this week when Philadelphia visits Dallas, and the Cowboys have opened as 3.5-point favorites. If you believe the Cowboys take this win at home, now is likely the time to grab them to win the division.

Now, if Dallas wins on Sunday, they’ll be first in the NFC East for now, but there’s still many paths for the Eagles to secure the division.

The difference is of course the schedule. Philly wraps up the year against the Seahawks, Giants, Cardinals and Giants again, while Dallas still has to play the Bills, Dolphins, Lions and Commanders.

We’d recommend staying away from any futures here, unless you believe the recent blowout loss for Philly is enough to kill their season.

NFC South

  1. Atlanta Falcons, 6-6 (-180)
  2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 5-7 (+360)
  3. New Orleans Saints, 5-7 (+400)

Now for the ugliest division in football: the NFC South. Atlanta is the understandable betting favorite given their 6-6 record, and what is perhaps more important is their perfect 3-0 division record. The Bucs are 2-1 in the division and the Saints are 1-2, so it’s seeming to us like a battle between Tampa Bay and Atlanta.

These two square off this Sunday in what could easily be the determining game of who wins this division. The Falcons are 2.5-point favorites at home and already beat the Buccaneers earlier this season in a 16-13 barn-burner.

While Tampa Bay hasn’t won many games, they are covering the spread, which at least suggests they’ve remained competitive this season. 

The Falcons just don’t impress us in the slightest, we’re on Tampa Bay to steal the NFC South at +360.

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