Wednesday, February 28, 2024

Brentford vs Fulham Odds, Pick: Cagey Affair Expected in Premier League (Mar. 6)

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Brentford vs Fulham Odds

Brentford Odds

+105

Fulham Odds

+270
Draw +255
Over/Under 2.5 (+105/ -130)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) (-140 / +110)
Odds via DraftKings. Get the latest soccer odds here.

The Premier League weekend comes to a close when Brentford host Fulham Monday in a clash of London sides who have exceeded expectations this season. The two teams have done that in very different ways.

Fulham have successfully absorbed pressure all season long, and they are unbeaten in their last four in the league. They’re also in the quarterfinals of the FA Cup following Tuesday’s fifth-round win over Leeds United.

Brentford have taken a more attack-minded approach and carry an 11-game unbeaten run into this one — though that includes six draws. Last weekend, Vitaly Janelt’s equalizer in the sixth minute of second-half stoppage time prolonged that steak in a 1-1 home draw to Crystal Palace.

Fulham secured an enthralling 3-2 victory in these teams’ previous meeting at Craven Cottage on Aleksandr Mitrovic’s 90th-minute winner.

Brentford Performing Far Better than Foes

As surprising as Brentford continue to be since winning promotion prior to last season, their +4.7 xG difference suggests the Bees should be higher than Fulham in the table.

Their +7 goal differential is also slightly better, and their +13 difference at home reveals a team that performs noticeably differently based on the state of the game.

There might be no side better at playing from the lead. Of their eight league wins, seven have come by multiple goals. That’s because the very nature of taking the lead plays into their consistent attacking posture as it entices others forward.

In those circumstances, Brentford also becomes less reliant on Ivan Toney. He’s scored exactly a third of Brentford’s 21 goals in multi-goal victories and just under 50% (7-of-16) of their goals in all other games.

These same dynamics have also given Brentford’s home games a very different dynamic depending on the opponent. The total has gone under 3.5 in four of the seven home games they’ve played as the oddsmaker’s favorite, and over 3.5 in four of the six games they’ve played as underdogs.

Fulham Feeling Good in March

If you’d told Fulham supporters at the beginning of the season they’d reach the FA Cup quarterfinals, they might have worried a cup run would be a distraction from a relegation fight.

The Cottagers of course have no such worries presently. Unless they don’t earn a single point in their remaining 14 Premier League fixtures, they’ll clear the 40-point threshold that generally guarantees survival.

Tuesday’s 2-0 home cup win over Leeds United brought the added benefit of bringing Mitrovic into the squad after an injury absence of just over two weeks.

The Serbian leads Fulham with 11 league goals and contributed an assist against Leeds, though he hasn’t found the net since a 1-0 league win on January third at Leicester City.

In the meantime, Manor Solomon has picked up the slack in stunning fashion, scoring his first four goals for Fulham in four consecutive games. That includes the opener in their 2-0 cup win from Mitrovic’s assist.

Brentford vs Fulham Pick

I’m most confident in the value of the total under 3.5 at -300 odds and an implied 75% probability.

The only time the total has gone over that mark in Fulham’s away matches was in three games against relegation fighters. We already mentioned the trends suggesting a lower total when Brentford are favored.

If there’s a way to get more value out of that lean, it’s probably parlaying a total under 2.5 with the draw at +360 odds and an implied 21.7% probability.

Brentford have drawn half of their six games as home favorites, with all of those finishing 1-1. Fulham have only shared the points twice on their travels, but both finished nil-nil. Totals in their games have also trended lower as Mitrovic has cooled off.

Pick: Same-Game Parlay – Draw and under 2.5 (+360 via DraftKings)

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