Friday, December 8, 2023

2023 The Players Championship: PGA Golf Betting Picks This Week

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This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting picks for the 2023 Players Championship. Use the PrizePicks promo code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf entries today!

The unofficial golf major is upon us and the true start to spring appears to be near. The world’s best golfers will tee it up at TPC Sawgrass this weekend for The Players Championship. The course will test the golfers and build anxiety throughout a round until each player takes his shot at the famed 17th green — where tournament hopes are made and often broken. Scan through our betting preview before reading on for this week’s golf betting picks.

The Players Championship at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – March 8th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Golfer Odds (3/8)
Rory McIlroy +900
Jon Rahm +1000
Scottie Scheffer +1000
Patrick Cantlay +1600
Justin Thomas +1800
Max Homa +1800
Xander Schauffele +2500
Viktor Hovland +2500
Collin Morikawa +2500
Tony Finau +2800
Will Zalatoris +2800
Jason Day +2800
Jordan Spieth +3300
Matt Fitzpatrick +3300
Sungjae Im +3300
Tyrrell Hatton +3300
Cameron Young +4000
Tom Kim +4000
Keegan Bradley +4000
Shane Lowry +5000

2023 The Players Championship: PGA Golf Betting Picks This Week

  • Course: TPC Sawgrass
  • Date: March 9-12
  • Par: 72
  • Yardage: 7,189
  • Greens: TifEagle Bermuda

Key Statistics

  • SG: Approach
  • Fairways Gained
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • P4 450-500
  • SG: Par 5
  • SG: Putting

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Justin Thomas +2000 (PointsBet)

I was a believer in JT last week and I am going to stick with him for The Players Championship. Thomas checks many of the boxes we are looking for at this event except putting. That said, TPC Sawgrass will feature some of the fastest greens Florida has to offer — likely mitigating the putting woes of several players. Thomas won this event in 2019 and has the approach game to go after flags every day.

In a bit of a rut lately, I was pleased with his effort at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. On one of the tougher courses, Thomas was in the mix until the wheels fell off on Sunday. We love JT in the wind if the weather takes a turn with his ability to break off stingers off the tee as well as his precise irons game. Further, Thomas, despite his putting woes, is a wizard around greens and brings a high level of creativity to every tournament.

While his recent form has not been ideal, he still rests in the top ten in Par 5 efforts and top 20 in opportunities gained. With his ability to dial in his irons, I don’t mind opening my card with him at a solid 20/1 offering at PointsBet. We will wager 1.1 units.

Sungjae Im +3500 (Caesars)

The Florida horse, Sungjae Im seems to never take off. Bermuda grass. Not very long. Needs to avoid bogeys. How does Sungjae not fit this course?

He has two made cuts in his last two starts at TPC Sawgrass but as mentioned in our betting preview we don’t mind missed cuts here. There is trouble everywhere and any golfer that tees it up — even previous winners — are more than capable of missing the weekend after a bad day. Sungjae avoids bogeys, scores on Par 5’s and pretty much checks every box we need at this event.

Yes, the field is strong. That said, we saw last week that it is in fact possible for someone down the betting board to topple the superstars up top. At this price point, I am going to keep adding Sungjae to my card in these events hoping he peaks at the right moment. He is a very interesting OAD play because he has been used so much already this season and will very likely be an unpopular selection for this tournament.

We will throw 0.6 units on him on Caesars Sportsbook.

Si Woo Kim +6600 (Caesars)

Si Woooooooooo Kim! Former winner at TPC Sawgrass, we see a very nice value price for a player who fits this course very well. He has never missed a cut at this event (five tries) and finished 9th last season to add to his already sterling resume. Kim checks our boxes on approach, opportunities, and has been surprisingly proficient as of late at avoiding bogeys despite his putting woes. As mentioned before, the lightning fast Bermuda greens help mitigate putting concerns.

Kim is a very aggressive player so we don’t mind using him on an outright bet. I am a little less excited about his top finisher propositions but at this price the value is there. He makes for a strong DFS play this week but his ownership should be monitored before clicking his name.

We are going to wager 0.35 units on Kim at his current best price on Caesars.

Hideki Matsuyama +8000 (BetMGM)

Price play alert. Nothing about Hideki’s recent form would suggest I should be interested in his wager. He has struggled across the board. In the statistical model I developed, Matsuyama ranks 67th over his last 36 rounds with all of my different categories weighted. It has certainly been ugly.

That being said, we are talking about an 80/1 price tag. Players in this range do not come with the pedigree of Hideki Matsuyama. Famously, Matsuyama was in the lead at this event prior to the tournament being canceled because of the pandemic shutdown. We have seen him perform well at this event.

For 80/1, I am taking a flyer on him at BetMGM. We will sprinkle 0.25 units for FOMO purposes.

2023 The Players Championship Betting Card

Golfer Odds Units Payout
Justin Thomas +2000 1.1 22
Sungjae Im +3500 0.6 21
Si Woo Kim +6600 0.35 23.1
Hideki Matsuyama +8000 0.25 20

The Players Total Units in Play – 2.3

2023 Net Units: -17.05

Good luck with all of your golf betting picks and DFS lineups this week.

Editor’s Note: Don’t live in a state with legal golf betting? Check out our Underdog promo code, one of the top DFS apps for fantasy golf pick’em.

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.

Image Credit: Getty Images

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