Florida keeps on swinging as all of the best players on the PGA TOUR return to action for the flagship event, THE PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra, Florida. If the first four Designated events have been any indication, we should expect another dramatic clash of the game’s best at this iconic Pete Dye venue. Below we’ll go through my final PLAYERS Championship bets. Click the odds anywhere in this article to place PLAYERS Championship Invitational bets.
For a full breakdown of the tournament and course, visit my PLAYERS Championship preview.
HOW I BUILT MY PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP BETTING CARD
At last year’s PLAYERS Championship, I filled my betting card with futures before realizing the implications weather would have on the tournament. This week, I tried to remain patient until we had a clearer outlook on the forecast, which has ultimately shown very negligible conditions between rain or wind. Even still, the constant threat of water hazards means a player is just one poor shot away from a blow up hole, so I set out to build a longer card to protect against any random ejections that may come.
My player pool consists of trending ball strikers or veterans with proven results on short, challenging, positional courses.
In terms of unit allocations for my card this week, it’s back to business as usual for THE PLAYERS Championship bets.
- Outrights – 3U in to pay 24U each
- FRL – 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
- Props – 3U in to pay out 3U+ each
Click on any of the odds below for THE PLAYERS bets and the best available prices across legal sportsbooks in your state.
THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)
Collin Morikawa
My Bet: +3000
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I’m always going to look Collin Morikawa’s way when we get to a tough, positional golf course, and that’s especially true whenever his odds drift beyond 30-1. While those odds are gone by now, Morikawa is the player I have the most confidence in this week, and I’d endorse the bet anywhere beyond 25-1 odds.
Bay Hill was not an ideal fir for Morikawa’s game, so I’m not too phased by the early exit at last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. Before the API, Collin had posted finishes of T6, T3, and T2 in three of his first four starts of 2023, so it’s clear his elite form is not far away. The course history doesn’t look fantastic at TPC Sawgrass, but we can throwaway the 2022 results in brutal weather conditions. In 2021, Morikawa was top-10 in SG: Ball Striking for the week, so in better conditions, I’m confident his game will translate well here. A winner at the 2021 WGC Workday at The Concession, Morikawa has already proven he has what it takes to win on a Florida Bermuda course against the PGA TOUR’s best.
Jason Day
My Bet: +5000
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This is the first time I’ve bet Jason Day outright since…maybe ever? In a seemingly never ending battle with injuries, swing changes, and search for his former World No. 1 form, I’m ready to believe he may have actually found the answers he’s been looking for. The 2016 PLAYERS Champion has been on fire to start 2023, with finishes of T18, T7, T5, T9, and T10 over his first five starts. He’s been clicking in all facets of his game, averaging a full stroke gained across the four major categories over his last 20 tournaments. With three top-10 finishes at this event over his last six trips, Day’s experience and reliable short game present a high floor at this set up.
With no murmurs of vertigo or back pain so far this week, I’m a full go on Day as he looks to make it five consecutive top-10 finishes.
Tom Kim
My Bet: +5000
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Tom Kim is exactly the type of player I want on my betting card at THE PLAYERS, and I would go far as to predict he will win this event within the next five years. TPC Sawgrass requires precision off the tee, elite approach play, a reliable short game, and the intangible need to handle high pressure risk-reward shots down the closing stretch. Leading into this week, Kim ranks top-10 in both Driving Accuracy and SG: APP, top-35 in SG: ARG, and has already picked up two PGA TOUR wins on comparable, short golf courses before turning 21. My spotlight player of the week, I love Kim’s chances in his PLAYERS debut.
Shane Lowry
My Bet: +5500
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I don’t bet Lowry often, but at drifted odds on a course he’s finished top-20 in back-to-back years, this seemed to be the right time to hop on. As an Open Champion, we should trust Lowry’s ball-striking into gusting winds and ability to scramble from tricky greenside positions. The Florida resident has always shined on the Florida swing, most recently posting a top-5 finish at the Honda Classic. Lowry rates out top-10 in my model this week, ranking top-25 in the most important categories of SG: APP, Comp Course History, SG: ARG, Good Drives Gained, Opportunities Gained, and SG: Ball Striking (Short Courses).
Sahith Theegala
My Bet: +8500
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With Sahith Theegala, I’ll always have some trepidation on tight courses that are demanding on total driving. Despite TPC Sawgrass’ positional nature, however, you can get away with keeping driver in the bag on most holes, which is a strategy players like Justin Thomas have successfully employed year after year. Theegala has found success on Pete Dye courses (T2 at the Travelers), short Bermuda courses (T2 at the RSM Classic), and intense risk-reward TPC courses (T3 at the WM Phoenix Open), so I expect he’s due to find the same success at TPC Sawgrass, the amalgamation of those three characteristics.
Keegan Bradley
My Bet: +9000
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I bet Keegan Bradley at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week. I bet Keegan Bradley at THE PLAYERS last year. I’ll be damned if I choose now to hop off the Keegan bandwagon.
“Consistency” is not a word used to define Keegan Bradley in many aspects, but it does apply at TPC Sawgrass. A Florida resident, Keegan has always looked comfortable here, making the cut in six consecutive appearances, including three top-16 finishes over that span. He posted a career best T5 here last year, and with the putter looking more dialed now than ever before, this may be the year he finally breaks through for a win.
Seamus Power
My Bet: +15000
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As we get further down the betting board, I’m looking for players who’ve proven they can win on TOUR, and not looked overwhelmed on this grand stage at THE PLAYERS. Power is not the ideal profile fit for TPC Sawgrass, coming in with inconsistencies on approach, but he’s made up for it with elite consistency with his short game, gaining in both SG: ARG and SG: P in 10 of his last 11 starts. At TPC Sawgrass, he’s looked solid with a pair of top-35 finishes in his two appearances. This year, he enters with a win and eight top-25 finishes over his last nine starts, suggesting his best finish may be yet to come.
Tom Hoge
My Bet: +15000
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Unlike Power, approach is the strength of Hoge’s game. He ranks No. 1 in SG: APP, and on a course as tight as this, I’ll take my chances with any player who leads the field on approach, especially when beyond 100-1 odds. Hoge was the first round leader at this event last year before inclement weather intervened. He’s never missed the cut here however, and has finished top-35 in three consecutive years. He’ll look to add to his total of six top-15 finishes already this season.
Matt Kuchar
My Bet: +34000
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I was bullish on Matt Kuchar at 28-1 odds two weeks ago at the Honda Classic, so I can’t jump ship now at 10x the odds because of two disappointing rounds. Kuchar’s win here in 2012 is still the defining moment of his long career, and with two top-10 finishes over his last five starts, he’s shown he’s still got a little left in the tank. If the weather gets ugly, I feel alright about Kuchar’s chances in a scrambling contest.
THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP FIRST ROUND LEADER BETS (0.5 UNITS)
Sungjae Im
My Bet: +5500
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Throwing away the conditions faced in 2022, Sungjae posted two rounds of 66 in 2021’s fair weather setup, proving he has what it takes to go low at TPC Sawgrass. Sungjae has always played his best golf on Bermuda greens, and is most likely to spike for a low round on a course like this which rewards precise ball striking and Bermuda putting.
Sahith Theegala
My Bet: +7000
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Sahith is no stranger to a hot start, posting within one stroke of the first round lead at the Mexico Open, the Memorial, and FedEx St. Jude Championship within the last year. He has a natural flair for the biggest stages, and despite his California roots, has popped with the putter on Bermuda greens just as well. Gaining 6+ strokes on approach in two of his last four starts, he’s in excellent ball striking form entering this week.
Tommy Fleetwood
My Bet: +7500
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Fleetwood is one of the most comfortable players in this field at TPC Sawgrass with a pair of top-seven finishes at this event over the last four years. Last year he opened with a share of the first round lead, and he’ll enter in solid form yet again, positive in both SG:APP and SG:ARG in each of his last seven starts.
Tom Hoge
My Bet: +9000
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Sharing the first round lead with Tommy Fleetwood last year was none other than Tom Hoge, and we were fortunate enough to be onboard to cash that two-way chop in 2022. We’ll go back to Hoge again for the memories in this spot, as he ranks No. 1 in SG: APP over the last 36 rounds.
Seamus Power
My Bet: +9500
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Ranking No. 2 in the field in terms of Par-5 Scoring, Power has the power to generate birdie-or-better opportunities on the four reachable par-5s at TPC Sawgrass. He’s putted best on Bermuda greens, picking up his first two career PGA TOUR wins on this surface, and has the combination of reliable ball-striking and short game needed to navigate this venue.
THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP PROPS (3.0 UNITS)
Top-20 Finish: Shane Lowry
My Bet: +210
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Typically I structure my placement card with a conviction bet at near-even odds, however with THE PLAYERS being so volatile, it’s difficult to find conviction in any individual player. So starting a bit longer down the board, I feel pretty good about Lowry’s prospects considering the combination of recent form (No. 15 SG: T2G) and course history (T13 and T8 in previous two PLAYERS appearances).
Top-30 Finish: Ben Griffin
My Bet: +340
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Ben Griffin has become a frustrating player to pin down this rookie season. The models consistently spit him out as a top-20 player, and he shows top-20 flashes seemingly every week, but has been prone to blow ups that have derailed his outright chances against lesser fields. The top-30 market seems like the right way to get your exposure to Griffin, as he’s finished T32 or better in seven of his last eight starts. No. 18 in my model, Griffin has shown that short, Bermuda courses are where he’s most comfortable.
Top-20 Finish: Tommy Fleetwood
My Bet: +350
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Fleetwood has lost the respect of sportsbooks in 2023, as the surefire Ryder Cup selection continues to slip further and further down the board. From a tee-to-green standpoint, his game looks polished, so he’s really only a warm putter away from playing himself into contention. TPC Sawgrass has proven to be a comfort course for Fleetwood, as he’s gained over five strokes from tee to green in four of his first five appearances, with two top-10s over that span.
Top-20 Finish: Seamus Power
My Bet: +380
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Seamus Power is top-20 in terms of SG: TOT over the last 36 rounds, so inherently there is an expectation that he play amongst the 20 best this week. He has just one finish outside the top-25 since last October, and ranks top-10 in both Par-5 Scoring and Birdies or Better Gained, suggesting a high floor leading into this week.
ONE AND DONE
My Pick: Jason Day
I typically try not to over-think ownership in OAD and just play the guy who feels least likely to crash and burn and most likely to finish top 10. THE PLAYERS is the most interesting OAD week of the year, because the highest purse is at stake, but the event has proven to be a MC risk for many of the favorites each year. Missing out on a chalk winner at THE PLAYERS (such as Cam Smith last year) can be a OAD death sentence with so much prize money at stake, but a MC from Rahm, McIlroy, or Scheffler is more in play here than any other event on the schedule, which can create a great leverage opportunity for the Majors and Designated events to come.
Ultimately I’ve decided to take the gamble of fading the elites with all this prize money at stake and siding with Jason Day instead. Day will never be hotter than he is right now with four consecutive top-10 finishes, and he enters an event that rewards in-form veterans which he has already won six years ago. Day is a rare example of a player who feels “safe”, but won’t command much ownership in OAD.
If not Day, I would also consider Collin Morikawa, Jon Rahm, or Justin Thomas as OAD picks.
THE PLAYERS CHAMPIOSNHIP: THE BETTING CARD
That’ll do it for this week’s PLAYERS Championship bets. Best of luck this week with your own PLAYERS Championship bets, and see you on Sunday for the 2023 Valspar Championship Preview. For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.
THE PLAYERS BETS: ODDS TO WIN
Compare odds across sportsbooks in your state, and click any of the odds below to make THE PLAYERS Championship bets now.